1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2022	335873	Deadeye Dinah	Current	25	7.18	0.00	2.50
			Estimated	400	8.01	5.96	1.93

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
In this in-hand solitaire Western campaign game, bounty hunter "Deadeye" Dinah Reeves is taking down a ring of crime bosses as a favor for her lawman little brother. Aim impossible shots, brave fearsome perils, and stretch scant supplies in your hunt to bring in each crime boss, dead or alive (most likely dead). As you progress, your legend will grow, striking fear into your enemies and granting you an edge...which you'll need, 'cause you've set your sights on the toughest, meanest pack of varmints this side o' the Wild West. Good thing you never miss. Deadeye Dinah features an in-hand, cards-only microgame campaign with 8 unique missions, each lasting 4-6 encounters, and persistent character progression through each mission. Each mission, or "job," is hunting down 1 crime boss. Players start a job by setting up the deck for the boss they want to pursue. To track down the boss, they play kit cards (Dinah's equipment) to overcome each scene card (the trials she faces) stacked on top of the boss card. A scene card can be an environmental peril or a shootout with hired thugs. Each kit card is played as either a bullet to shoot or an item to use for special effects, but playing kit cards also leaves Dinah open to being shot and losing cards. If Dinah overcomes a scene, the player adds the scene card to Dinah's kit cards. If she can't overcome the scene, she must escape and lose cards. If Dinah ever runs out of kit cards, and the player can't add any more, she fails the job and must start over. If Dinah overcomes all the scenes and reaches the boss, she must duel the boss by playing a bullet to shoot the boss while avoiding getting shot herself. If she doesn't fulfill both those conditions, the boss slips away and Dinah fails the job. But if both conditions are fulfilled, Dinah wins the duel, captures the boss, and completes the job, earning reputation in the crime ring's new territory. As Dinah earns reputation, the player upgrades her legend effect, a passive benefit she carries into each job. This game was first published as an entry in the 2021 9-Card Nanogame Print and Play Design Contest, where it won several awards: #1 Best Solitaire Game #1 Best Original Artwork #1 Best Cards-Only Game #2 Most Innovative Mechanism #3 Best Overall Game -description from designer

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/335873

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Deadeye Dinah? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Deadeye Dinah. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Deadeye Dinah. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	335873	Deadeye Dinah	1.00	0.00	7.18	1.93	25
1	2016	191387	Star Trek: The Dice Game	0.84	5.71	7.69	1.67	238
2	2016	207242	Pentaquark	0.84	5.69	6.84	2.62	308
3	2019	294813	The Drifter	0.82	5.55	8.01	1.80	53
4	2014	158882	Elevenses for One	0.82	5.60	6.14	1.19	322
5	2019	287780	Squire for Hire	0.82	5.78	6.81	1.69	497
6	2020	325038	The Brambles: A Solo Card Game	0.82	5.54	7.79	1.67	38
7	2019	251445	The Perfect Moment	0.81	5.51	5.81	2.33	140
8	2018	220380	Blorg in the Midwest	0.81	5.60	6.83	1.78	164
9	2001	35658	Malta Convoy: Operation Pedestal	0.80	5.49	5.03	1.38	34
10	2014	157002	The Confederate Rebellion	0.80	5.54	7.40	2.44	47
11	2014	171721	Micro Rome	0.80	5.56	7.04	1.40	85
12	2017	233783	Dwarf	0.79	5.55	6.72	2.00	88
13	2005	18781	Hornet Leader II	0.79	5.61	7.30	2.06	114
14	2008	34639	The Dungeon of D	0.78	5.68	7.19	2.37	244
15	2020	269420	Ragemore	0.78	5.67	6.96	2.18	264
16	2020	298371	Wild Space	0.78	6.33	7.34	2.13	1,452
17	1969	25314	Bowling Solitaire	0.77	5.68	6.72	1.52	301
18	2016	203715	The Shooting Party	0.77	5.53	6.60	1.25	64
19	1981	2678	Voyage of the B.S.M. Pandora	0.77	5.68	6.81	2.64	325
20	2017	231152	1972: The Lost Phantom	0.76	5.58	7.02	1.77	115
21	2020	299908	Squire for Hire: Mystic Runes	0.76	5.61	7.14	1.78	126
22	2018	264566	Card Capture	0.76	5.54	7.32	1.33	65
23	2008	38755	College Basketball Dynasty	0.76	5.55	6.88	2.00	57
24	2020	309721	Alone Against Fear	0.76	5.54	7.96		34
25	2016	197097	Four Against Darkness	0.76	6.15	7.53	2.09	1,261

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Deadeye Dinah while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	335873	Deadeye Dinah	0.00	1.00	0.00	7.18	1.93	25
1	2019	285774	Marvel Champions: The Card Game	5.80	0.74	7.81	8.20	2.87	15,775
2	2011	77423	The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game	5.50	0.74	7.41	7.66	3.19	22,371
3	2020	306735	Under Falling Skies	5.21	0.71	7.30	7.86	2.46	6,083
4	2017	199561	Sagrada	5.13	0.70	7.36	7.51	1.93	31,978
5	2020	298371	Wild Space	4.92	0.78	6.33	7.34	2.13	1,452
6	2016	191387	Star Trek: The Dice Game	4.78	0.84	5.71	7.69	1.67	238
7	2018	245487	Orchard: A 9 card solitaire game	4.78	0.73	6.56	7.43	1.18	2,224
8	2016	207242	Pentaquark	4.76	0.84	5.69	6.84	2.62	308
9	2019	287780	Squire for Hire	4.73	0.82	5.78	6.81	1.69	497
10	2015	143405	Sylvion	4.71	0.73	6.47	7.10	2.04	2,832
11	2015	134253	Hostage Negotiator	4.70	0.72	6.48	6.85	1.99	5,007
12	2016	197097	Four Against Darkness	4.67	0.76	6.15	7.53	2.09	1,261
13	2013	148729	Maquis	4.62	0.71	6.54	7.43	2.17	2,163
14	1983	1608	Ambush!	4.60	0.70	6.56	7.48	3.25	2,264
15	2014	158882	Elevenses for One	4.59	0.82	5.60	6.14	1.19	322
16	2019	294813	The Drifter	4.57	0.82	5.55	8.01	1.80	53
17	2018	220380	Blorg in the Midwest	4.55	0.81	5.60	6.83	1.78	164
18	2020	325038	The Brambles: A Solo Card Game	4.53	0.82	5.54	7.79	1.67	38
19	2019	251445	The Perfect Moment	4.49	0.81	5.51	5.81	2.33	140
20	2013	142854	Infection: Humanity's Last Gasp	4.47	0.75	5.94	7.29	2.11	583
21	2014	171721	Micro Rome	4.43	0.80	5.56	7.04	1.40	85
22	2008	34639	The Dungeon of D	4.42	0.78	5.68	7.19	2.37	244
23	2005	18781	Hornet Leader II	4.41	0.79	5.61	7.30	2.06	114
24	2019	282439	Lux Aeterna	4.41	0.75	5.88	7.08	2.09	587
25	2014	157002	The Confederate Rebellion	4.41	0.80	5.54	7.40	2.44	47

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2022	335873	Deadeye Dinah	(Self-Published)	Onthewayover	Giampiero Randazzo	Adventure	Contests: 9 Card Nanogame PnP	Card Play Conflict Resolution
			(Web published)			American West	Players: Games with Solitaire Rules	Finale Ending
			Button Shy			Card Game	Players: Solitaire Only Games	Hand Management
						Civil War	States: Texas	Layering
						Fighting		Move Through Deck
						Print & Play		Scenario / Mission / Campaign Game
						Puzzle		Set Collection
						Travel		Solo / Solitaire Game
								Variable Set-up

Individual Game Analysis